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Outcome: NS2.5 Describes and compares chance events in social and experimental contexts.

Indicators:
- Predicting and recording all possible outcomes in a simple chance experiment.
- Using the language of chance in everyday contexts eg a fifty-fifty chance, a one in two chance.
- Listing all possible outcomes in a simple chance situation e.g. heads, tails, if a coin is tossed.
- Conducting simple experiments with random generators such as coins, dice or spinners to inform discussion about the likelihood of outcomes e.g. roll a die fifty times, keep a tally and graph the results.
- Distinguishing between certain and uncertain events.
- Compare familiar events and describe them as being equally likely or more or less likely to occur.
- Ordering events from least likely to most likely.

Lesson 1
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Pegs - Predicting/Listing/ recording outcomes
Demonstrate to students how to use pegs to predict and record a simple chance experiment. Draw up a table to show how to record results.
In small groups, students are given a bucket of pegs or any other object preferred. The bucket could have 10 blue and 10 yellow pegs. Students begin to sort and count the pegs and then return to bucket. Students predict all possible combinations of pegs if two pegs are randomly taken from the bucket, using the language of chance. When they have finished discussing the possibilities, they select one possible combination and write it down in their table. Without looking, they take two pegs out of the bucket and compare it with their predicted result.
Worksheet: Chance Experiment Resources: Pegs, maths book


Lesson 2
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Certain / Uncertain events
Begin lesson by explaining the difference between certain and uncertain events and other words like (unlikely, impossible, probable). You could brainstorm student responses on paper. Use a variety of examples through social contexts, for greater understanding. For e.g “How likely is it that we will have a formal school assembly today?” etc… This activity could be used in many different ways for e.g. (The teacher reads out a list of questions and students could answer in books. Or the four corners of the classroom could each represent one of certain, uncertain, likely or impossible. After teacher reads out a question students need to make a decision by moving to one of the four corners.
Go to IXL Maths at http://www.ixl.com/math/practice/grade-3-certain-probable-unlikely-impossible For Year 3 and IXL Maths at http://www.ixl.com/math/practice/grade-4-calculate-probability For Year 4. This website is a free version with 100 different chance questions that could be used as a whole class interactive activity.
Worksheets: Probability- Certain, Possible or Impossible
Most likely, likely, least likely
Game of chance Resources: Butchers paper


Lesson 3
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Dice – Certain/ Uncertain / Comparing
Revise uncertain and certain events using a dice this time. Go to A maths Dictionary for Kids by Jenny Eather at http://www.amathsdictionaryforkids.com/dictionary.html. Click on C, then click on Chance to play chance dice game. Students could sit in pairs with a dice each. They read the question on the interactive whiteboard and roll their dice in order to decide on one of the four answers (impossible, unlikely, likely or certain) on the interactive board. Teacher to reveal answer.
Additionally, students could sit in pairs and roll their dice a number of times e.g. (5, 15, 25, 50). Tally their results to determine the likelihood of outcomes. Discuss and compare results with partner.
Worksheet: Dice- Chance Experiment Resources: Dice for each student






Lesson 4
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Tossing Coins
In pairs, students discuss and list in their books the possible outcomes when tossing one to two coins. Eg heads, tails. The same concept can be repeated with materials of your choice.
Worksheets: Tossing coin 20 times Resources: Coins

Lesson 5

Begin the lesson by re-introducing the pegs activity in lesson 1 in order to understand that there can be a number of combinations in a given chance activity. Discuss all the possible combinations by visually displaying the pegs and working out various strategies to calculate the number of combinations, (this could be done through multiplication or making a list). Change colour/amount of pegs and have students volunteer to work out the new combinations. In small groups, students are told that they will be given three t-shirts and two pairs of trousers and are asked to predict how many different combinations of clothes they could make from them. For extension work, go to IXL Math at http://www.ixl.com/math/practice/grade-3-combinations